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Modeling Population in China

With over 1 billion people – representing a full 20 percent of the world's population – China is the world's most populous country. However, China's population growth has slowed following adoption of the one child policy, in effect since 1979. Nevertheless, China's population is expected to continue to grow over the next few decades, and only start dropping in 2030. The continued growth can be attributed to immigration, reduction in infant mortality, and reduction in the death rate as national health improves.

MI has partnered with the China Population and Development Research Center (CPDRC) to develop a population model to assist with national decision making on family planning related matters.  The CPDRC is the government agency tasked with conducting population and family planning research and advising the government on population policy.

The model developed builds on the population sector of the T21 model and includes additional components such as temporary rural to urban migration, which is widespread in China.

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