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Threshold 21 Model
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Historical Development and Applications of the T21 Model

1980

Global 2000 Report to the President Published

1981

First national 21st century study conducted in China and Canada. Thirty-six other national studies were conducted through 1990, leading to the publication of Studies for the 21st Century in December 1991.

1983

Millennium Institute (MI) founded to inspire global action on sustainability issues. 

1985

MI publishes Managing a Nation: The Microcomputer Software Catalog, a review of some of the best modeling software in our library of over three hundred models.

1991

Development of the Threshold 21 model began, following adoption of Vensim® as the modeling language.

1993

The Millennium Initiative commenced with a goal to use Systems Thinking to accelerate the turn toward a sustainable future for Earth. A “Millennium Call” was issued to a wide range of institutions and individuals to use the turn of the millennium for constructive actions that will catalyze the emergence of peace, justice, and sustainability in the 21st Century.

Global 2000 Revisited published.  The publication was reissued with additional material as Threshold 2000: Critical Issues and Spiritual Values for a New Age.

1994

T21-Bangladesh – UNICEF sponsored application of Threshold 21 model to analyze important child development issues in Bangladesh.

 1996

T21-Tunisia – A model was developed for the Tunisian Institute of Strategic Studies (ITES) to support coherent planning several ministries and agencies.

1997

T21-Malawi – A model was developed for the Government of Malawi to translate their Vision 2020 goals into measurable objectives. The outcome was a new national development strategy, Reaching the Vision that sets out the path to attaining the national vision.

1998

T21-Italy – A model was developed for the National Agency for the Protection of the Environment to Italy analyze how best Italy could achieve its various international environmental commitments, while still promoting economic growth.

T21-Cambodia – This model was developed to test an algorithm for modeling war effects within an integrated framework that combines society, economy and environment.

2001

T21-Guyana – A model was developed for the Government of Guyana to support preparation of the national Poverty Reduction Strategy Credit Proposal for the World Bank.

2002

T21-China – A model was developed for China to highlight its growing energy and food demand.

T21-Papua – Conservation International and MI collaborate on pursuing a more cooperative approach to address the concerns of various interest groups represented in Papua’s environmental and economic resources.

T21-Thailand – MI developed for UNFPA this model focused on population, reproductive health, and HIV/AIDS, in order to analyze the diffusion of HIV/AIDS in the country and test alternative prevention and treatment policies.

T21-USA: The first version of the T21-USA model was created.

2003

T21-Mozambique A model was developed for the Government of Mozambique to support preparation of a the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for the World Bank and operationalization of Agenda 2025, the national document that outlines the goals for Mozambique’s development.

T21-Cape Verde – A model was developed for the Government of Mozambique to support preparation of a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for the World Bank. The model was also used by the World Bank for their Development Policy Review.

2004

T21-Ghana – A model was developed for Ghana to examine the impact of MDG-related interventions on Ghana’s economic and social development. The model evaluated the impact of fourteen interventions in areas of health, education, infrastructure, and agriculture, and the synergies among them.

T21-USA: The second version of the T21-USA model, which focused on the economics and social security dynamics was created and featured on C-SPAN.

2006

T21-MEG – MI developed and applied the Multi Entity Gaming (MEG) model to support a multi-donor effort to encourage politicians, policymakers, and community leaders in the Western Balkans to think about their future in a regional context.

2007

T21-Jamaica – A model was developed for the Planning Institute of Jamaica to undertake comprehensive development policy analysis, report on key indicators under different policy scenarios, and expand understanding of the inter-sectoral linkages. The Jamaica government has since used the model to guide preparation of Vision 2030 Jamaica, a 25-year national development plan expected to put Jamaica on a path to achieve developed country status by year 2030.

T21-USA – The third version of the T21-USA model was created and presented at the New America Foundation. The model conducts analyses of current and future energy use, and is being deployed to mobilize action on sustainable energy future for America.

T21-North America – This model (encompassing USA, Candaa and Mexico) investigates the long-term implication of current energy use on the global economy. It examines the impacts of various assumptions about fossil fuel availability and use and test scenarios such as the consequences of energy peaks and shifts to alternative energy sources to demonstrate their likely impact on human wellbeing.

2008

T21-Lolland – A model was developed for the Municipality of Lolland to examine the impacts of mega renewable energy projects on the local economy and environment.

T21-USA – The USA model was applied to several studies, including waste management in Ohio State, analyzing the socio-economic and environmental impacts of CAFE standards (H.R. 1506, H.R. 2927m and Revised Markey Bills), and the National Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) H.R. 969 Bill.

2009

T21-USA – The USA model was further expanded to examine how increases in energy prices associated with comprehensive and mandatory cap and trade policy proposal that was being debated in the US Congress would affect the competitiveness of US manufacturing industry in the long term.

2010

T21-Swaziland and Senegal – Models were developed for the Governments of Swaziland and Senegal to identify growth drivers amid a HIV pandemic in Swaziland, and a changing international environment in both countries. The Senegal model was used to support the quantification of the scenarios of the Etude Prospective Senegal 2035, the national vision document. The Swaziland model was used to support the quantification of the scenarios of the national MDG report, and Economic Recovery Strategy, a long-term planning exercise on the possible futures for Swaziland.

UNEP Green Economy Report – A comprehensive global and national sectoral models was developed to analyze how green policies and investments contribute to macroeconomic performance, generate high quality jobs, and reduce poverty, while also mitigating climate change impacts. The analysis provided by the model served as underpinning for the Green Economy Report. The report can be downloaded here: http://www.unep.org/GreenEconomy/Portals/93/documents/Full_GER_screen.pdf

2011

T21-ECOWAS – Two regional and fifteen national models are being developed for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a sub-regional economic cooperation bloc, to strengthen its capacity to conduct research and analysis of development policy options to guide formulation of coherent regional integration and national sustainable economic growth and development programs.

T21 Kenya  A model that analyzes the risks and impacts of climate change across the major sectors in the economy, society and environment was developed for the Government of Kenya. The model is being used to develop more coherent adaptation policies that encourage sustainable development, poverty eradication, and increased wellbeing of vulnerable groups within the context of Kenya’s Vision 2030 program.

T21-Mali – T21 was first customized for the Government of Mali in 2005 to support development of the national poverty reduction strategy and a preparing a PRSP. In 2011, the model was expanded with additional sector to do a more comprehensive analysis of the determinants of poverty in Mali and analyze the consistency between the national poverty reduction strategy and the Millennium Development Goals.